The Absence of the 2025 Song of the Summer: The Unspoken Influence of Donald Trump and Broader Cultural Shifts

I. Introduction: The Trump Factor in the Music Industry

Devon Powers, a professor of media studies at the University of Michigan and author of On Trend: The Business of Forecasting the Future, posits that in the ongoing debate regarding the 2025 Song of the Summer, or rather, its apparent absence this year, there is a crucial data point that has eluded consideration: Donald Trump. As the media landscape has become increasingly decentralized, with music streamers supplanting radio stations and TikTok revolutionizing the music video format, music consumption patterns and listener preferences have fragmented significantly. However, Trump has emerged as a rekindled symbol of cultural unity in contemporary society, representing the closest approximation to a monoculture. In the United States, he is a polarizing figure around whom a majority of the population has passionately rallied, whether in support or opposition of his ideals. Powers contends that Trump's influence extends far beyond the divisive political sphere of Washington, D.C., potentially impacting even the music charts. The lack of a definitive Song of the Summer this year "may, in an unexpected way, be linked to Trump," whose towering presence is intricately tied to the evolving cultural hegemony.

II. Trump and Cultural Conservatism

Powers notes that towards the end of the election season and immediately following Trump's election, there was considerable speculation about whether country music had presaged his rise. She argues that there has been a discernible increase in conservative elements within the cultural landscape, which are now more difficult to overlook. Examples such as the Paramount+ show Yellowstone, the resurgence of the "trad wives" concept in popular discourse, and the MAHA movement all attest to this trend. These developments, she suggests, are interconnected and part of a broader cultural shift.

III. Additional Factors Contributing to an Unpredictable Music Summer

A. Shifting Listening Habits

Listening habits on streaming platforms like Spotify and SoundCloud are in a state of flux. Listeners are becoming more eclectic, venturing beyond their comfort zones, and loyalty to a single genre is waning. This diversification of musical tastes has made it challenging to identify a single song that resonates with a broad audience during the summer months.

B. Authenticity Crisis in the Music Industry

The music industry is grappling with an authenticity crisis stemming from creative authorship. Streamers are inundated with AI-generated music, which has established itself as a distinct genre. This flood of AI-produced content raises questions about the integrity and originality of music, further complicating the search for a definitive Song of the Summer.

IV. Trump's Impact on the Music Industry's Direction

Luminate's midyear survey on music trends, released last month, indicates that while music streaming has reached an all-time high, overall growth has decelerated globally. Amidst these trends, Christian music is experiencing a notable upswing, evolving both in its definition and discovery. JJ Italiano, head of global music curation and discovery at Spotify, explains that traditionally, Christian music operated within a relatively closed ecosystem with limited distribution and niche promotion channels. However, the increasing dominance of younger, streaming-native listeners has created space for a new wave of Christian and faith-driven artists to explore a more expansive sonic palette. Although the full "MAGA-fication" of music is still distant, with rap and rock remaining the most popular genres in the US, there has been a perceptible shift in consumer listening habits. Trump, while not the sole reason for the absence of a Song of the Summer, is an overlooked factor, according to Powers.

V. The Concept of the Song of the Summer

Billboard launched its Songs of the Summer chart in 2010, and the phrase entered the cultural zeitgeist in 2012. Powers describes it as a "relatively recent vintage," more of a business proposition than a purely musical accolade, serving as a means of "branding music and our relationship to the summer season." Currently, "Ordinary" by Alex Warren, a YouTuber and founding member of Hype House, holds the top spot on the Billboard Hot 100. This choir-laden ballad about love reflects the growing popularity of Christian music. However, unlike past summer anthems such as Carly Rae Jepsen's "Call Me Maybe" and Kendrick Lamar's "Not Like Us," "Ordinary" may not embody the quintessential spirit of summer. This shift may portend the future direction of the music industry.

VI. The Difficulty of Achieving Cultural Consensus

Dan Charnas, an associate professor at New York University and author of The Big Payback: The History of the Business of Hip-Hop, notes that achieving cultural consensus has become more challenging in the current musical landscape. Summer is not as integral to the music industry's business model as it is to the film industry, which may explain why record labels are less aggressive in vying for summer chart dominance compared to the fall. He acknowledges that while it is not impossible to have a summer-defining song, as demonstrated by Sabrina Carpenter last year, the streaming era, with its personalized playlists, makes it far more difficult to achieve widespread convergence around a single song.

VII. Evolution of the Music Industry

Wyatt Marshall, senior director of music intelligence at SoundCloud, posits that the music industry is in a state of natural evolution. With streaming accounting for 92 percent of all music consumption in the US, the concept of a single "mainstream" is expanding, and listeners are becoming more "genre-agnostic." Despite a plethora of chart-worthy summer releases from diverse artists such as HAIM, Burna Boy, Lorde, The Clipse, and Tyler, the Creator, listeners have yet to reach a unified consensus.

VIII. Genre Fermentation and AI's Impact

The ongoing genre fermentation, particularly the rise of AI-generated music, is contributing to the lack of a clear Song of the Summer. AI music, with its outlandish song titles like "Make Love to My Shitter" and "Grant Me Rectal Delight," is inundating streaming platforms, raising legitimate concerns about creative authorship. AI-generated bands like Velvet Sundown, which amassed over 1 million streams on Spotify, are finding substantial online audiences while simultaneously challenging traditional notions of authenticity. In June, an AI song debuted on the US charts, reaching No. 44 on the TikTok Viral 50.

IX. Shifting Listening Behavior

SoundCloud's Marshall has observed a subtle shift in listening behavior. Data shared with WIRED reveals that only 43 percent of plays in the US have been to tracks released in the past 18 months, a slight decline compared to the previous two summers. This suggests that listeners may be revisiting old favorites or balancing discovery with nostalgia, potentially explaining the resurgence of "recession pop," or pop songs from the late 2000s.

X. The Role of Social Media

TikTok and Instagram have played a pivotal role in maintaining the relevance of music, either by keeping old favorites in the spotlight or catapulting new songs to fame. Viral sounds on these platforms have the power to create long-term staying power. Prior to 2020, no tracks spent more than 40 weeks in the top 10 of Billboard's Hot 100 chart. However, the COVID-19 pandemic, which confined people to their homes and led to a surge in TikTok usage, changed this dynamic. According to The Wall Street Journal, eight songs, including Dua Lipa's "Levitating" and Teddy Swims' "Lose Control," have since exceeded the 40-week benchmark.

XI. Backlash to Previous Summers

Powers suggests that the apparent lack of consensus this summer may be a "backlash to the last few summers." The explosion of social media in the 2010s and the rise of streaming, which transformed how people communicate, share, create, and gather, were initially thought to have eradicated monoculture. However, Powers contends that these theories are incomplete. Last year's focus on Charli XCX's Brat and 2023's Barbenheimer phenomenon, despite being significant marketing campaigns, did not necessarily counteract the underlying fragmentation. Young people, having lost some faith in large-scale music movements associated with political campaigns like Brat Summer, may be seeking something new this year.

XII. The Fluidity of Genres and Fandoms

In an era characterized by the decline of mass consensus and growing divisions, fandoms are in a state of flux, and genres that were once niche are gaining popularity. Marshall notes that "genres are more porous than ever," with listeners being more open to diverse musical styles and fandoms no longer confined to a single genre. Italiano adds that country music on Spotify is also on the rise, appealing to a wider audience, reflecting the younger generation's openness to various genres and the loosening of traditional constraints on what constitutes country music.

XIII. Conclusion: Navigating the Cultural Moment

Powers concludes that while it is not a complete cultural revolution, society is still grappling with how to interpret and discuss this cultural moment. The absence of a clear Song of the Summer in 2025 is a complex phenomenon, influenced by factors ranging from the unacknowledged impact of Donald Trump to broader shifts in music consumption, genre evolution, and the role of social media.